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November 2022 Portfolio update: end of year rally might just be here!

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When stocks undercut the day 54 low last Friday, the bullish divergence on the oscillators indicated a continuation of the daily cycle decline. Recovery of the breakdown level would have indicated an extended daily cycle low. When stocks formed a swing low on Monday it looked, in real time, that the undercut-extended daily cycle low […]

Bloodbath Phase

Stocks closed lower again on Monday. Stocks are getting stretched below the 10 day MA and approaching a possible support level at the June DCL. We could see stocks deliver a dead cat bounce, which will help to allow the 10 day MA to catch up to price. With stocks needing another 3 – 4 […]

Declining Trend Line

The dollar formed a bearish reversal on Wednesday. Wednesday was day 33 for the dollar’s daily cycle.  That places the dollar in its timing band for a daily cycle decline.  The dollar delivered bearish follow through on by forming a swing high on Thursday. A break below the accelerated (dashed) trend line will signal the […]

Dollar Update

Stocks broke below support from the previous DCL on Friday. At 18 days, stocks still had 2 – weeks before being in their timing band for a DCL. So with stocks in a failed daily cycle, the expectation was for stocks to continue lower until the DCL forms. However, stocks delivered a bullish surprise on […]

Tradable Bounce