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November 2022 Portfolio update: end of year rally might just be here!
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Bloodbath Phase
When stocks undercut the day 54 low last Friday, the bullish divergence on the oscillators indicated a continuation of the daily cycle decline. Recovery of the breakdown level would have indicated an extended daily cycle low. When stocks formed a swing low on Monday it looked, in real time, that the undercut-extended daily cycle lowمتابعة قراءة “Bloodbath Phase”
Declining Trend Line
Stocks closed lower again on Monday. Stocks are getting stretched below the 10 day MA and approaching a possible support level at the June DCL. We could see stocks deliver a dead cat bounce, which will help to allow the 10 day MA to catch up to price. With stocks needing another 3 – 4متابعة قراءة “Declining Trend Line”
Dollar Update
The dollar formed a bearish reversal on Wednesday. Wednesday was day 33 for the dollar’s daily cycle. That places the dollar in its timing band for a daily cycle decline. The dollar delivered bearish follow through on by forming a swing high on Thursday. A break below the accelerated (dashed) trend line will signal theمتابعة قراءة “Dollar Update”
Tradable Bounce
Stocks broke below support from the previous DCL on Friday. At 18 days, stocks still had 2 – weeks before being in their timing band for a DCL. So with stocks in a failed daily cycle, the expectation was for stocks to continue lower until the DCL forms. However, stocks delivered a bullish surprise onمتابعة قراءة “Tradable Bounce”